Assuming that there were 10^160 marbles in a bag, the typical picture one would draw is choosing a marble, seeing it wasn't the selected marble, and drawing another out of the bag. Eventually you get to the one you want (labeled evolution), and there you have it. And the point people then argue is that it is just as likely that that marble will appear early on, and not necessarily at the very end. ...sound reasonable, at first, until you grasp a pure, true picture of what the math really means.

The deal is that each time the you choose a marble from the bag, you
have to replace it for the next choice. *The bag never empties.*

The whole
point of the probability is saying that if you take 10^160 random marbles
out of an infinite sized pile, *chances are* that you'll only end up with one
select marble labeled evolution. *Not* that there IS one marble in a pile
of 10^160 marbles labeled evolution.

But what if instead of using a bucket, I used a sand box? Or a whole playground. Yes, find the single colored grain in a playground filled with sand? Or, a beach filled with white sand? ...now the task is getting to where you'd call it next to absolutely impossible. But wait, let's throw things really into perspecitive.

If you took 10^63 (not 10^100, not 10^160... but only 10^63 -- a 1 with
only sixty-three zeros after it) grains of sand, you would find that a sphere
made of this much sand would have a radius equal to the distance of the
sun to the earth. [ Archimedes, "The Sand Reckoner" -- Infinity and The
Mind, by Rudy Rucker ] You are now talking about a sphere larger than the
Earth... larger than the Sun... larger than the orbits of the first three
planets of our solar system! Technically, a sphere this size would
require *under* 10^63 grains of sand, but *to be cautiously conservative*
in the favor of evolution, we've *overstated* the number and *understated the size*
for the illustration.

Now try pulling a select grain of sand randomly from *that* pile. That
pile which is approxiamtely 10^94 times *smaller* than the probability of
such a spontaneous generation of the most simple form of "life" happening
by chance.

Suppose we wanted to stack 10^160 marbles into a cube, how big would that be? First each side would be (rounding down) 10^53 marbles in length. [Computed by taking the cube root, due to 3 dimensional volume.]

Before you say 'ha!' and point out this is less than 10^63, remember the sphere made
moments ago was *grains of sand (not marbles)* and were all packed together in
a 3-D volume, these marbles are *end-to-end* in a *1-D line*.

So take that
sphere apart and form a line out of its contents. Assuming a marble is half
an inch in length (the average marble is a little larger than that - again we're
being conserative), that means there are 24 marbles to the foot.
..or 126,720 marbles to the mile ..or (rounding down) APPROXIMATELY: 744,923,496,448,000,000
marbles to the light year. That's 744+ Quadrillion marbles *per* light year.

That would mean (*rounding down*) one side of our *cube* of marbles would measure
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (10^36) light years in
length. Remember a light year is the *distance* it takes a beam of light
traveling at 670616629.384 miles per hour to go in one year. Incidently, the
nearest star is 23-million-million (23,000,000,000,000) miles away; it takes
light from the star (Proxima Centauri) about 4 years to reach us. Now
compound the fact our cube is * much* longer than that distance, and that it is
also high and deep, as well as long; that

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